Oil prices, stock market, housing prices, and predict the trend of policy

 Oil prices, stock market, the trend of prices and policy anticipation
First of all, say that policy, China is a policy market, this is something we all know, the policy depends on the surface of the inner meaning and meaning, inner meaning is the policy of the city characteristics. It should be said at the end of last year, some of bailout policies are all valid, that is the end of this year, Dec. 31, it is the policy enacted last year to rescue the market has been very clear.
August this year, the basic task of preserving complete bailout policy may at the end of exit, but the withdrawal does not necessarily reverse the policies introduced, the policy may be to maintain the stability and continuity. more likely is the basis of a series of policy is still not changed, because no one not guarantee the global economy has been highly visible, no one dared to ensure that the financial crisis will not be repeated, who did not dare to guarantee the sustainability of economic growth, good preparedness preparedness is better than none. the real economy still in deflation, the Reality is difficult to really change until next year, next year the task is still very grim, no doubt too early to throw away crutches, wrestling, wrestling, or hit the south wall, would like to pick up a walking stick,UGG boots, anything difficult. Now society is a intervention in the economy is expected to society, if the expectations are a strong shock, then, the economy that will be very persistent, and we obviously see that in 2098 the economic growth curve, the real or recover after 2000. U.S. Men of the Great Depression in the thirties was mainly due to failures of U.S. policies at the time, especially since the later is premature repeatedly dropped a stick caused.
second about oil prices, the global commodities trend in the future should be shock, 32x (2 +0.5) are asking for 80 dollars above the pressure, $ 80 is difficult to have effective support, here talking about the short term, that is a real breakthrough this year is difficult to 3X ( 2 +0.833) = $ 90.66. because of the current oil prices do not respond real expectations, oil prices rising dollar as the key, which is the result of speculation, of course, like most global hot money speculation of oil, because oil is flow, unlike the land and property that can not flow, but the real estate and land, financial assets is the world's hot money is chasing the object. The world economy is in recovery, the recovery result is repeated. now with oil prices so aggressive, mainly the result of speculation. yesterday, the day the dollar continued to rebound, also increased the pressure on the oil market. Some analysts have pointed out that U.S. energy demand was no substantive improvement in the delay constraint is still the main reason for the international oil prices. As closing day of the New York Mercantile Exchange light sweet crude for December delivery futures prices closed at $ 77.46 a barrel, down $ 2.09 compared with the previous session. London, Brent North Sea crude for December delivery fell $ 2.06,bailey UGG boots, to close at $ 75.86 a barrel. This shock is not supported for the high oil prices, particularly U.S. dollars, for their own interests, but also intolerable that create problems given the speculation the U.S. economy. But we know that rising oil prices in the long run is not changed, the rise in oil prices did not change channels.
it clear oil prices, because oil is a global commodities benchmark, we can know that the price of the issue. modern society is the era of excess goods, but also inflation and price increases more than the performance of the rising cost-push and resource-driven rise,UGGs, and now the international community, especially the development of international finance, is the world prices can also rise and fall at the same time the source. These two factors In our country, is imported cost-push inflation and inflation. Now oil prices shocks, commodity price pressures in the slow, especially on the real economy to adjust to win time, and even if oil prices could continue to rise, We can cut off their access to the physical trend of the spread, can stabilize prices of agricultural products to promote the upward pressure on prices overall.
prices and the stock market's overall trend is upward, and real estate continue to support domestic demand, the economy is unlikely to quiescence in can not be rapidly expanded, and the absence of external demand, the stock market is a symbol of hope and confidence, supporting the confidence of the middle class, is their a psychological defense. The psychology of real estate but last line of defense, the performance of 50% of full private property for the property It is the foundation of the entire private wealth, if the base has shrunk, they may cause various problems, many people do not think their property is not sold, they can not hedge, if really was a significant decline in housing prices, private wealth,cheap UGG boots, profit is the capital of predators and the powerful, they take full advantage of paper money to buy the dips, until your wealth looted, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis is financial predators for looting the American people, American people are very naive to think that a lot of , house prices drop is good for them, their houses will not sell, but the result is very clear, very cruel. is almost always lose the whole property, not just house slaves. Many people like to bad-mouthing the school, can be understood because they cater to their own, but you do not necessarily say that cater to your interests. The author is not long dead, I repeatedly pointed out that housing prices rose too much is not conducive to the development of real estate enterprises, but also repeatedly pointed out , house prices should be volatile. look at the problem can not have emotions, especially on market analysis, do not come with the slightest emotion, the future is if the price rises, in order to cater to you or not said, you said that hurt you or help you determine if this capacity is not, interest groups, and so empty at every turn that hat chaos deduction, to solve any problem, can only make yourself even more confused, not a long memory.