Look at the data, unbiased

 Look at the data, unbiased
6547.05 points, 27.53% of the waterfalls in just 42 trading days; further to 8029.62 points from 6547.05 points, 22.65% of the meteoric rise only an outlay of 27 trading days. What a fickle age, even the index also can not wait jumped about, or even what time to think carefully set their eyes on the quiet which side of the ice and fire.
Yes, a number of years and then recall it's a crazy, hard to imagine that in just a few months to the financial market or the real economy, marked by two opposite trends in label. Although there is no shortage hearts softened in talking about the apparently also belong to the same month a Or would attribute the words, uncertainty. uncertainty appears to constitute a huge financial market volatility in Times of Crisis powerful explanation, but this explanation is more like it around the people get to the bottom but meaningless tautology. There is also a popular market and kitsch words, called distinct behavior choices and market performance? The reason is simple, the trend is objective,Bailey UGG boots, but uncertainties is not the trend, but our perception and understanding of trends. free to look around us, people's heart is like autumn clouds, uncertain, the former second indicator may still be down for a feel dejected chance to answer because the other indicators will be a little less or rejoice. in the market psychology of dramatic changes,UGG shoes, imperceptibly inclined to capricious market behavior and irrational, and erratic performance of financial markets, it is this reflected in the main macro-micro fickle.
So why is so unpredictable market psychology? This is the author of this little text you want to discuss. In my opinion, in an uninterrupted economic data to share the information age People read and taste some customs and way of information may lead to more frequent and intense psychological fluctuations of the underlying causes.
First of all, people's perception and understanding of economic data may not be comprehensive. grass is always greener seems to be human nature, boring and jumbled face of the data series, non-professional market participants seem to be more concerned about trends, rather than the continuation of the trend. Although the investigation has not been rigorous validation, but I found that people seem to have a habit of concern for the ring data data to be significantly greater than the concern of the year, although the former is a longer time series may be a high-frequency fluctuations of white noise, it is often happy to be with the ; term trend like compared to the neglect of the large year on year trend data may contain features. take a fresh example of the end of March to 4 months, the United States after another announced a series of housing indicators, people are surprised to find that these indicators are very seductive ring data, in February U.S. sales of existing homes, new home sales and housing starts increased by 5.1% qoq, 4.7% and 22.2%, a slump the previous month to change the negative growth trend, Ever since, the people rejoice in the The U.S. housing market as a sign of recovery, Chudi, and began to talk about the crisis can not wait to the end of the era. But hidden in the shadows of the other housing data are more or less been forgotten, in fact, if Looking at the data and thinking the underlying meaning, optimism may not be so high, and Take sales of existing homes,UGG boots, new home sales and housing starts these three indicators, the data can be described as an appalling, -4.6%, -41.1% and -46.5%, not only were continued for nearly 30 months of continuous decline year on year trend of negative growth, even to the sub-prime crisis, the worst level since. Housing sales were the bright rally continued to decline along with the year of what it means? First, the market may In the hit new lows, and the second, the market is still very bad,Discount UGG boots, yes, but also worse than the bottom of it? chain with sales of its own and the same period last year, it seems that we can not be too optimistic, if the links to other relevant data, this optimistic beneath is even more cautious mood. in the sales ring data shows positive growth, U.S. home prices still in decline, the amount of the market price or even verified in the hit new lows, not really bottomed out, let alone recover. touch bottom and the recovery is entirely two concepts to understand the results unpredictable hit new lows for the bottom, further association for the recovery, the market psychology in the face of the recent U.S. housing data somewhat freak out when.
Second, people on the perception and understanding of economic data may be easily lost watermelon, picking up the sesame seeds. complex economic data, especially in mature market economies, the economic data, in the same category more than the number of indicators was beyond the imagination often. For non-professional market, the easy to understand the same phenomenon the existence of two different error indicators: First, major changes will be secondary targets small changes in key indicators As before, thus biased judging in the trend. or give a fresh example of U.S. auto sales in February rose 8.79% qoq, wholesale sales rose 0.6% qoq, compared with the previous month's contraction has significantly changed in the media on the , part of the market to recover as the U.S. consumer an important basis for the main engine, but in fact, in February the U.S. personal consumption of the core indicators actually contracted 0.2% qoq, while industrial production is also equally important to shrink by 1.5% qoq, Overall U.S. consumption is not optimistic. Second, the market's large easy to lagging indicators leading indicators of changes in As before, smaller changes, and then on the expected future deviation. is also a new example of U.S. economic data, in March U.S. unemployment onto the 8.5% rate, a record high since 1983, some market participants to look at from a historical perspective, that peak, but it is clear that these people did not pay enough attention to the large number of employment data in several leading indicators, March average duration of unemployment rose from the previous 19.8 weeks to 20.1 weeks, which means that the increasing difficulty of finding work, March of civil service work hours decreased from the previous 33.3 hours to 33.2 hours, which means further layoffs by employers to reduce working hours instead of the two leading indicators of future information including common that the possibility of future very large increase in unemployment rate , which lagged far the data contains a lot of future information to Kaopu.
Finally, people's perception and understanding of economic data is vulnerable to the ; areas Interestingly, two other may not be visibly pleased, because just so cute, vicious circle is now the impact of market participants, which may be exaggerated like to attract the eye and keen media, or want to profit from expectations of some professionals, which is not difficult to understand, no need to repeat them here.
In short, look at the data, it seems need some sense of balance, not pleased, not to have compassion, it seems that is the For beautiful eyes gradually in the market environment, willing to see the mountain jealously guarding detachment leisurely mood it? At least, I feel like I can not do is to remember.